FANTASY PLAYS: Players to start with every one other accompanied by sit for NFL Week 7
Another time of imagination football, another category of start-or-sit scenarios to answer.
It™s not fair sufficient to preliminary version the just team with every one other accompanied by build the just moves off the waiver wire. We all know that. We too have to build sure that we are starting the just players every one week.
Of course, we have our studs, anchors, with every one other accompanied by the players we™re starting in effect no indeed matter what. We don™t need anyone to tell us to start Travis Kelce.
But, the further down the lineup we go, the additional those questions trickle in.
Then again, no indeed player is a must-sit inside every one scenario, with every one other accompanied by maybe the WR3 you™ve been plugging inside every one week may have a better alternative.
To answer the question, Should I sit Player X, depends on the answer to the question, Who tin you start instead?
That™s why I exist fond of to switch up the representative start-or-sit pillar format. I™m going to exist listing not here all pertinent imagination football players every one week with every one other accompanied by bucketing them into tiers.
Take some of the guesswork not here of setting our lineups weekly, I™ll exist leveraging thousands of slate simulations that are based on numberFire™s player projections accompanied by dynamic measures for variance, such while quarterback rushing, running spine receiving, with every one other accompanied by receiver mark depth.
Kansas City Chiefs
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The results will boil down to trio tiers: players we should exist optimistic concerning starting, players we tin believe concerning starting whenever we don™t have better alternatives nevertheless who aren™t must-plays, with every one other accompanied by players we should try to bench whenever we do have better alternatives (i.e. players listed above them on the list).
These players are listed inside order of frequency of hitting the stated threshold (i.e. QB12, RB24, WR24, with every one other accompanied by TE12 performances), with every one other accompanied by higher on the list means additional intelligent to start.
The groupings reflect a 12-team, single-quarterback alliance accompanied by the following hypothetical inside mind: if I had other viable options on my bench or the waiver wire, should I start this player this week?
Players not listed should exist presumed sit-worthy inside a shallow or standard-sized league, with every one other accompanied by all imagination points references with every one other accompanied by rankings reflect half-PPR scoring.
QUARTERBACKS
Start accompanied by confidence:
” Justin Herbert vs. SEA (75%)
” Lamar Jackson vs. CLE (72%)
” Patrick Mahomes at SF (69%)
” Joe Burrow vs. ATL (66%)
” Dak Prescott vs. DET (56%)
” Geno Smith at LAC (56%)
” Kyler Murray vs. NO (55%)
” Derek Carr vs. HOU (53%)
” Tom Brady at CAR (51%)
” Tua Tagovailoa vs. PIT (51%)
Consider if needed:
” Aaron Rodgers at WSH (49%)
” Russell Wilson vs. NYJ (45% at full; 9% at half)
” Marcus Mariota at CIN (43%)
” Daniel Jones at JAC (43%)
” Mac Jones vs. CHI (41%)
” Matt Ryan at TEN (38%)
” Ryan Tannehill vs. IND (37%)
” Trevor Lawrence vs. NYG (37%)
” Jimmy Garoppolo vs. KC (36%)
” Jared Goff at DAL (35%)
Bench if possible:
Jameis Winston at ARI (33%); Jacoby Brissett at BAL (32%); Justin Fields at NE (32%); Taylor Heinicke vs. GB (30%); Davis Mills at LV (30%); Zach Wilson at DEN (30%); - Mitch Trubisky at MIA (7%); Kenny Pickett at MIA (6%).
Russell Wilson has an initial partial projection since of a hamstring injury. If he is projected while a full-go, at that hour dated he is category not here while 45% probable for a top-12 week.
If Mac Jones does not play, Bailey Zappe is category while a 29% play.
Even at a filled projection, Jameis Winston is a preferred sit candidate; the same would apply to Andy Dalton.
Kenny Pickett with every one other accompanied by Mitch Trubisky are at first projected for a workload split. They™re not QB1 options inside shallow leagues either way.
The bye week quarterbacks ” Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, with every one other accompanied by Kirk Cousins ” are mainly impactful for Week 7. That™s set of two stars with every one other accompanied by set of two quality starters. There are still a handful of surefire options flat lacking them, nevertheless that does depart from Tier 2 looking attractive lengthy ” with every one other accompanied by a small portion shaky. That said, we still have almost a dozen quarterbacks inside the optimistic start tier, so you probable have one of them rostered with every one other accompanied by tin retain away from the drop-off.
The model still likes Aaron Rodgers well enough. He has had a durable scheme so far, with every one other accompanied by according to our Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which is numberFire™s expected points model, Rodgers has played fair beneath supposition on one occasion accounting for opponents faced. Only one of the defenses he™s squared off accompanied by consequently a lengthy way has ranked external outside the top 20 inside adjusted go protection (per our numbers). The Washington Commanders, his Week 7 opponent, are 23rd. In the lone game accompanied by a comparable matchup to this one, Rodgers still had only 195 yards with every one other accompanied by no indeed touchdowns opposed to the Minnesota Vikings. Consider looking somewhere else if you have the option to do so this week, nevertheless don™t go excessively a lengthy way down the list to retain away from Rodgers.
Although Trevor Lawrence hasn™t been consistently fantasy-friendly, he is shaping up while a potential streamer for needy teams. He faces a New York Giants protection that ranks 18th inside adjusted go defense, a tier inside which Lawrence™s opponents have lived inside 2022.
Excluding a single matchup opposed to a top-five defense, Lawrence has played five games opposed to teams ranked 16th into and not here of 23rd inside adjusted go defense. In them, he™s averaged 18.7 imagination points while putting up a 52.5% passing favourable consequence percentage with every one other accompanied by 0.17 Passing NEP per drop-back. The NFL signify this time is only 0.06, so there are still reasons to exist attentive inside Lawrence while a high-end QB2 inside imagination formats.
Jared Goff returns from a bye to face a stingy Dallas Cowboys defense. The Cowboys position top five inside aggregate imagination stats allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Goff, inside set of two games opposed to top-12 go defenses, has averaged fair 12.8 imagination points accompanied by a per-game stat dash of 222.0 yards, 1.0 touchdowns, 1.0 interceptions, with every one other accompanied by -0.19 Passing NEP per drop-back.
We strength exist eager to want to hurry spine to this offense, nevertheless lay clasp of a look at some other names above him if possible.
RUNNING BACKS
Start accompanied by confidence:
” Derrick Henry vs. IND (83%)
” Christian McCaffrey vs. TB (82%)
” Jonathan Taylor at TEN (80% if full; 40% at half)
” Josh Jacobs vs. HOU (78%)
” Austin Ekeler vs. SEA (77%)
” Saquon Barkley at JAC (76%)
” Leonard Fournette at CAR (75%)
” Joe Mixon vs. ATL (74%)
” Alvin Kamara at ARI (68%)
” Ezekiel Elliott vs. DET (66%)
” Nick Chubb at BAL (66%)
” Rhamondre Stevenson vs. CHI (64%)
” Aaron Jones at WSH (64%)
” Breece Hall at DEN (63%)
” Dameon Pierce at LV (62%)
” David Montgomery at NE (62%)
” Kenneth Walker III at LAC (60%)
” D™Andre Swift at DAL (60% at full; 23% at half)
Consider if needed:
” Raheem Mostert vs. PIT (59%)
” Najee Harris at MIA (52%)
” Jamaal Williams at DAL (51% lacking Swift; 26% accompanied by Swift)
” Jeff Wilson vs. KC (51%)
” A.J. Dillon at WSH (50%)
” Travis Etienne vs. NYG (49%)
” Eno Benjamin vs. NO (44%)
” Clyde Edwards-Helaire at SF (43%)
” Tony Pollard vs. DET (42%)
” Brian Robinson vs. GB (42%)
” Caleb Huntley at CIN (41%)
” James Robinson vs. NYG (40%)
Bench if possible:
Melvin Gordon vs. NYJ (39%); Tyler Allgeier at CIN (38%); J.K. Dobbins vs. CLE (38%); Kareem Hunt at BAL (38%); Antonio Gibson vs. GB (32%); Nyheim Hines at TEN (30%); Mike Boone vs. NYJ (29%); Rex Burkhead at LV (29%); Michael Carter at DEN (26%); J.D. McKissic vs. GB (21%); Rachaad White at CAR (21%); Latavius Murray vs. NYJ (20%).
Jonathan Taylor was restricted inside practice on Thursday with every one other accompanied by Friday for Week 6, nevertheless was ruled not here earlier to last Sunday. At a fifty per cent of workload, he is projected for a 40% top-24 rate. At a filled workload, he is at 80%.
With the Detroit Lions on a bye inside Week 6, we didn™t learn a a large amount of concerning the status of D™Andre Swift. He is at first projected at fifty per cent of of his usual workload, nevertheless bumps up to 60% if projected fully.
The snap percentage for Raheem Mostert scaled spine to 62.5% last week, nevertheless he was on the wound report last week, so that strength have had something to do accompanied by it. We™ll see how he progresses this week. Still, we™re not inside a position to scoff at a majority snap percentage from some running back, with every one other accompanied by Mostert has played on at least fifty per cent of of the Miami Dolphins™ snaps inside five unswerving games with every one other accompanied by on at least 60.0% inside trio consecutive. In that three-game stretch while a additional associated accompanied by small portion inside the Miami offense, Mostert is averaging 15.7 carries, 2.7 targets, with every one other accompanied by 83.7 yards from scrimmage for 11.0 half-PPR points.
We should exist cautious accompanied by Jeff Wilson if possible. In Week 5, Wilson had 132 scrimmage yards on 22 carries with every one other accompanied by set of two targets while playing 57.4% of the San Francisco 49ers™ insulting snaps. In Week 6, the Niners trailed, with every one other accompanied by his part scaled spine to a 50.9% snap rate, a workload that yielded septet carries with every one other accompanied by one mark for fair 25 total yards. This week, the rushing matchup opposed to the Kansas City Chiefs is enviable (they™re 24th inside rushing favourable consequence percentage allowed to opposing backs). However, the likelihood of playing from behind means that we could see additional of a Week 6 part for Wilson than what he had inside Week 5. Just believe earlier to locking him in.
Can we eventually start Tony Pollard? Maybe. It depends on the expectations. Pollard feels extremely associated accompanied by inside the Dallas Cowboys™ offense, with every one other accompanied by that offense should exist getting Dak Prescott spine under center this week.
Pollard is yet to amuse oneself on additional than 54.7% of the team™s snaps, with every one other accompanied by his high-water mark since Week 2 is fair 42.6% while Ezekiel Elliott maintains a majority-back role. On a positive note, Pollard™s snaps are additional productive than most: he gets a convey or mark on 45.8% of his snaps (compared to 45.1% for Elliott with every one other accompanied by 38.8% while a position-wide average). The matchup accompanied by the Detroit Lions is extremely promising while well. They™re allowing 0.99 rushing yards over supposition to opposing backs while well while a 51.3% rushing favourable consequence rate, every one of those ranking 29th inside the NFL. Both Elliott with every one other accompanied by Pollard are flex-worthy plays inside this spot, with every one other accompanied by the model loves Elliott flat additional than that.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Start accompanied by confidence:
” Deebo Samuel vs. KC (87%)
” Davante Adams vs. HOU (82%)
” Ja™Marr Chase vs. ATL (72%)
” CeeDee Lamb vs. DET (65%)
” Tyreek Hill vs. PIT (64%)
” Mike Williams vs. SEA (62%)
” Tyler Lockett at LAC (59%)
” D.K. Metcalf at LAC (57%)
” Amon-Ra St. Brown at DAL (57%)
” Courtland Sutton vs. NYJ (55%)
” Jaylen Waddle vs. PIT (55%)
” Mike Evans at CAR (54%)
” DeAndre Hopkins vs. NO (54%)
” Amari Cooper at BAL (53%)
” Chris Olave at ARI (53%)
” Brandin Cooks at LV (53%)
Consider if needed:
” Keenan Allen vs. SEA (49% at full; 10% at half)
” Michael Pittman Jr. at TEN (49%)
” Christian Kirk vs. NYG (49%)
” Chris Godwin at CAR (49%)
” Tee Higgins vs. ATL (48%)
” Diontae Johnson at MIA (46%)
” Jerry Jeudy vs. NYJ (43%)
” Drake London at CIN (43%)
” Allen Lazard at WSH (43%)
” Jakobi Meyers vs. CHI (41%)
” Robert Woods vs. IND (40%)
” JuJu Smith-Schuster at SF (37%)
” Marquez Valdes-Scantling at SF (34%)
” Brandon Aiyuk vs. KC (33%)
” George Pickens at MIA (33%)
” D.J. Moore vs. TB (32%)
” Devin Duvernay vs. CLE (32%)
” Donovan Peoples-Jones at BAL (31%)
” Garrett Wilson at DEN (30%)
” Michael Gallup vs. DET (30%)
Bench if possible:
Chase Claypool at MIA (29%); Terry McLaurin vs. GB (28%); Marvin Jones vs. NYG (28%); Tyler Boyd vs. ATL (27%); Alec Pierce at TEN (26%); Zay Jones vs. NYG (26%); Romeo Doubs at WSH (25%); Darnell Mooney at NE (25%); Nico Collins at LV (24%); Marquez Callaway at ARI (22%); Corey Davis at DEN (21%); Curtis Samuel vs. GB (20%); Hunter Renfrow vs. HOU (20%).
Keenan Allen is projected at a fifty per cent of workload. With a filled return, his top-24 likelihood are 49%.
Brandon Aiyuk with every one other accompanied by the relax of the 49ers had some increased passing volume their way inside a negative game handwriting inside Week 6. Aiyuk handled 11 targets for 83 yards with every one other accompanied by set of two touchdowns opposed to the Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers are underdogs this week opposed to the Chiefs, with every one other accompanied by that should lead to additional volume for the pass-catchers again. San Francisco has a 53.1% go percentage so a lengthy way this season, ranking them 25th inside the league. When trailing by septet or fewer (and excluding two-minute drill possessions), their go percentage is up to 65.6%, with every one other accompanied by their go percentage over supposition is +3.3%. It may not exist point-chasing to go following Aiyuk on one occasion additional this week.
On the other side of that game, we have a few options accompanied by the Chiefs™ pass-catchers who are borderline plays on one occasion again. Last week saw JuJu Smith-Schuster rack up 113 yards with every one other accompanied by a touchdown on his five targets. He did that by having a perfect catch percentage with every one other accompanied by accruing 81 yards following the catch. He entered last week accompanied by only 136 yards following the catch (27.2 per game) on the year.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, meanwhile, didn™t catch some of his trio targets a week following setting time highs inside catches (six), targets (eight), with every one other accompanied by yards (90).
Collectively, their matchup isn™t ideal, while the 49ers are 10th inside adjusted imagination points per mark allowed to receivers. However, they are allowing a catch percentage over supposition of +2.0% with every one other accompanied by may have had some early touchdown luck. Don™t regulation them not here fair since of a durable on-paper matchup.
I™m still seeing the Washington Commanders™ pass-catchers ranked well most places, nevertheless the simulations are noticeably foot on them. Terry McLaurin with every one other accompanied by Curtis Samuel will see downgraded efficiency accompanied by Taylor Heinicke under center inside Week 7 with every one other accompanied by beyond.
Heinicke™s 2021 time featured additional than 500 drop-backs, nevertheless fair 0.01 Passing NEP per drop-back with every one other accompanied by a 45.0% passing favourable consequence rate, marks that were 0.09 with every one other accompanied by 2.1 points beneath the position average, respectively.
In 2021, Washington ranked 25th inside go rate, while well. They™ve been a small portion pass-heavier to start 2022 accompanied by Carson Wentz, nevertheless we could see that volume alter on one occasion additional now that Heinicke is spine under center. Even a matchup opposed to the Green Bay Packers (31st inside adjusted imagination points per mark allowed to receivers) isn™t sufficient to build them priority starts over a a large amount of their peers.
TIGHT END
Start accompanied by confidence:
” Mark Andrews vs. CLE (82%)
” Travis Kelce at SF (82%)
” Gerald Everett vs. SEA (57%)
” Kyle Pitts at CIN (56%)
” George Kittle vs. KC (55%)
” Darren Waller vs. HOU (53% at full; 26% at half)
Consider if needed:
” Zach Ertz vs. NO (42%)
” David Njoku at BAL (42%)
” Pat Freiermuth at MIA (42%)
” T.J. Hockenson at DAL (40%)
” Dalton Schultz vs. DET (40%)
” Hayden Hurst vs. ATL (39%)
” Robert Tonyan at WSH (38%)
” Noah Fant at LAC (33%)
” Evan Engram vs. NYG (31%)
” Daniel Bellinger at JAC (30%)
Bench if possible:
Tyler Conklin at DEN (28%); Hunter Henry vs. CHI (27%); Isaiah Likely vs. CLE (25%); Logan Thomas vs. GB (25%); Cole Kmet at NE (24%); Brevin Jordan at LV (24%); Mike Gesicki vs. PIT (22%); Will Dissly at LAC (21%); Adam Trautman at ARI (20%); Taysom Hill at ARI (20%); Cade Otton at CAR (19% assuming Cameron Brate is out).
Darren Waller was restricted inside Week 5 accompanied by a hamstring injury; there has been no indeed update since at that hour dated specified the Las Vegas Raiders™ bye.
Pat Freiermuth could to exist cleared for Sunday.
Despite a filled practice on Friday entering Week 6, Dalton Schultz did not amuse oneself on Sunday night.
A larger part existed for Robert Tonyan inside Week 6 following Randall Cobb™s injury. Tonyan finished Week 6 accompanied by 12 targets for 90 yards. That equated to a 27.3% mark share. We can™t simply extrapolate that percentage not here for the relax of the way, nevertheless the circumstances around it is elite: it would position him behind fair Mark Andrews (33.1%) on the time among the position.
The Seattle Seahawks™ receivers were restricted inside Week 6, with every one other accompanied by that funneled targets to the relax of the team, nevertheless Noah Fant has had an uptick inside market portion for the past set of two games (20.8% with every one other accompanied by 23.3%). In that span, he™s averaging 6.0 targets with every one other accompanied by 47.0 yards. On paper, the Los Angeles Chargers constitute a difficult matchup (they™re tops inside adjusted imagination points per mark allowed to firm ends), nevertheless have too allowed a catch percentage over supposition of +6.0% to the position.
Since a part grow inside Week 3, Daniel Bellinger has been a viable imagination football firm end. Week 3 was the earliest hour dated he reached a 40.0% way rate, with every one other accompanied by it™s climbed inside every one game since: 40.5%, 41.2%, 50.0%, with every one other accompanied by 80.6%. Since Week 3, Bellinger ranks 12th among the position inside mark portion (16.3%) with every one other accompanied by sixth inside scarlet area mark portion (30.0%).
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